Welcome Pattern Change this Week

After one of the driest starts to July in recorded history, there is some welcome relief in sight as the pattern across the eastern United States begins to shift late this week. Short Term: Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the Washington Region as humidity begins to increase. The image below is from the latest high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model showing storms firing between 3 and 9 pm.

A cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday bringing a better chance of more widespread showers and storms. The region will experience a break from the humid conditions Wednesday through Friday before a more drastic change to the pattern begins next weekend as an upper-level low pressure system sets up shop across the Midwest, pumping a south wind along with higher dew points out of the Gulf of Mexico. The DC Region will likely have higher chances of precipitation each day beginning next Saturday (the 21st of July) and continuing through much of the following week.

The latest European Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) shows our region getting some much-needed rainfall beginning in earnest next weekend, continuing through 30-July.