Ensembles Currently Split on Weekend Storm

The current Ensemble Forecast Models are not in agreement on the track of a storm system that may impact the DC Region next Sunday into Monday.  Given that there is a Nor’easter sitting on the Jersey coast right now and that the pieces of energy that will ultimately come together to dictate the eventual track of this weekends system are still over the ocean, it is prudent to hold off judgement until we get later into the day on Friday when details should begin to come together.

The image above shows a wide spread in potential locations of the coastal storm (red Ls all over the map), according to the latest European Model.

European Ensembles are currently just about split (almost down the middle) with a 50% probability of getting a major snowfall and a 50% probability of the storm passing to our south:

GFS Ensembles are currently a bit further north than the European Model:

The Canadian Ensembles are more in line with the European Model:

Hopefully we will begin to see some consistency in track beginning late Thursday night into Friday afternoon.


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