Chance for Snow Increasing for Saturday but Confidence in Exact Track is Low

A cold front will push southward into the DC Area on Friday with rain showers and temperatures steadily falling throughout the day. Temperatures will dip into the middle 20s on Friday night setting the stage for the possibility of snow or a mix developing on Saturday as a new wave of low pressure moves eastward out of the Tennessee Valley.

The two sets of images below are from the latest European Ensembles:

Meteorologists look to the ensembles for “consistency” in solutions (there are 50 solutions, or mathematical outcomes to compare).

As you can see in the 50 individual images below, some show no snowfall accumulation in the DC Metro Area (with snow staying to our north or south) with other ensembles showing quite a bit.

Bottom Line:  Until we see consistency in the European Ensembles, I am not going to get my hopes up on individual, operational runs of the models this far out in advance.

The models should come into better agreement as we head into late Thursday afternoon.

 

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