Tonight’s Event a “Dress Rehearsal” for Potential Ice Storm Early Next Week

Many of you have been asking why I have not been posting much lately, to be honest I can’t stand brutally cold winters that are void of snow and I am not overly impressed with storms that go well out to sea providing DC a measly inch or two of snow.  With that said, I will do a brief post because many of you are asking me to. I hope everyone had a fantastic Holiday Season!

There will be an extremely tight snowfall gradient overnight between Dulles Airport and the Chesapeake Bay.  The image below from the Weather Prediction Center shows up to one inch of snow in DC with 3 to 6″ falling along the eastern shore of the Bay with barely a coating along/west of route 28 in Northern Virginia.

Latest Rapid Refresh Model showing snowfall accumulations through 10 am Thursday:

– Again you can see the very tight snowfall accumulation gradient setting up along interstate 95.

Radar Simulation/Future-cast from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh/HRRR model:

-The best chance of snow in DC will be between 1 am and 9 am.

Metro View:

The next shot of arctic air will be punishing with wind chills dropping well below zero Thursday evening through much of Friday.  The National Weather Service will likely have to issue “Wind Chill Warnings” due to conditions ripe for hypothermia and frost bite. 

Our next storm system may impact our region as early as Monday and the latest models are showing an “over-running”/”CAD” (Cold Air Damming) event where warm air rises on top (over-runs) of cold air at the surfaceDepending upon the exact track of this storm system, our region may be under the gun for a nasty ice storm.  The image below is the latest operational run from the Euro showing potential ice accumulations from Freezing Rain (anything over a half-inch is capable of causing widespread power-outages).

Speaking of this weekend, I will be skiing in the mountains and will try to provide a few updates via Twitter @DCstorms

Stay warm out there and Happy New Year!

 

 

4 Replies to “Tonight’s Event a “Dress Rehearsal” for Potential Ice Storm Early Next Week”

  1. Love your weather page Been waiting for your forecast! We always can count you for accurate on the money forecast! Ever since the Derachio in summer a year or more ago!

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  2. Thanks for the info. We have missed your posts. You are by far the most accurate and informative of any other weather forecasts in the area. Thank for all the hard work!

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

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  3. Tim!!!! Welcome back! We missed you! Thanks for the update! I was worried about you! I’m glad that you are doing well! Enjoy your ski trip, be safe! I hope to hear from you soon! Thanks again!

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