A strong cold front will approach the DC Region on Saturday evening as a storm system forms along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. How quickly the upper-level trough phases with the surface low off of our coastline will ultimately impact just how much rain will fall across our region.
The two images below are from the latest European operational run showing the potential track of a powerful coastal storm:
It is still too early to iron out an exact track and how quickly the upper-level trough phases with the coastal surface low pressure system. If you take a look at the latest European Ensembles, you can see that there is still a great deal of spread in the placement of where the storm system will ultimately be situated off of our coastline overnight Saturday into the day on Sunday.
The closer to the coast this storm tracks, the more prolonged and heavier the rain will be across our area:
Latest Ensemble “Mean” of all 50 ensembles:
– Confidence is increasing of at least a solid inch of rain across our area from the cold front and coastal storm
However, some of the individual ensemble members show very impressive rainfall totals of between 2 and 4″ of rain (something we will need to watch closely).
With cold air wrapping into this system snow will break out across the higher elevations of the West Virginia Appalachians as well as the mountains of western Maryland:
– Snowshoe West Virginia Ski Resort could easily pick up a fresh 2 to 5″ of snow as very cold air ascends up the western facing slopes of the mountains.
I will provide updates as the exact track becomes much clearer over the next 24 to 36 hours. Many of you are asking me when I am going to issue my winter forecast… I’m still working on it and plan to release it before just before Halloween.