October Warmth across Eastern United States Matches La Nina Analogs

The image below courtesy tropical tidbits shows the upper-level height anomalies through October 21st (according to the latest Global Forecast Ensemble System). 

Notice the continuous bright orange colors over the northeastern United States indicative of an upper-level ridge of high pressure with a trough (dip in the jet stream) over the western United States.

This pattern favors mild Indian Summer weather to continue through the next 10 to 20 days.

The the following image shows the historical height anomalies associated with weak La Nina conditions in the Equatorial Pacific:

Notice the yellow and orange colors over much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast indicative of persistent upper-level high pressure over these areas and a strong trough of low pressure across the Gulf of Alaska.

Also of interest is the light blue (lower heights/low pressure) over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean (indicative of the active tropical hurricane season we have had in this region).

Reanalysis of Sea-Surface-Temperatures during weak La Nina patterns matches up pretty well with current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies:

As we head later into October I will be looking at some of the historic analog years (past years that match up with current global conditions) during weak La Nina Winters and will issue a Winter Forecast for the 2017-18 Season.

 

 

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