Latest European Ensemble Tracks:
The image below shows the “spaghetti tracks” of the European Ensembles. Ensembles give forecasters a better glimpse of where a system may track as the numerical inputs are slightly tweaked (some 50 times) at initialization to account for the lack of a more dense weather observation stations. For now the image below shows a tropical system emerging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and then tracking northeast from there, possibly impacting the Mid-Atlantic with much-needed rainfall Columbus Day into Tuesday.
The latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) “spaghetti tracks” are further to the west than the European Ensembles:
Unless I see the European Ensembles shift further west in future runs, I am currently putting more faith into the current National Hurricane Forecast Track which closely follows the European Ensembles.
DC Storms 