Latest Ensemble tracks on what may soon be Tropical Storm Nate

Latest European Ensemble Tracks:

The image below shows the “spaghetti tracks” of the European Ensembles.  Ensembles give forecasters a better glimpse of where a system may track as the numerical inputs are slightly tweaked (some 50 times) at initialization to account for the lack of a more dense weather observation stations. For now the image below shows a tropical system emerging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and then tracking northeast from there, possibly impacting the Mid-Atlantic with much-needed rainfall Columbus Day into Tuesday.

The latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) “spaghetti tracks” are further to the west than the European Ensembles:

Unless I see the European Ensembles shift further west in future runs, I am currently putting more faith into the current National Hurricane Forecast Track which closely follows the European Ensembles.

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