Tim’s 2017-2018 Washington DC Area Winter Forecast

For Tim’s 2018-2019 Washington DC Area Winter Forecast, click here

After a very active Hurricane Season and one of the warmest and driest October’s on record what can we expect this upcoming Winter across the National Capital Region?

For potential clues, I pulled past weak La Nina Winter seasons (12 analog years) and looked at temperature and precipitation anomalies that followed during November through March.  The image above shows a blend of global temperature anomalies from twelve previous October’s when weak La Nina conditions were developing across the Equatorial Pacific.  Notice the warmer than average temperatures in October stretching across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

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Latest High-Resolution-Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) Future-Cast Radar Simulation

A steady soaking rain will develop this afternoon, continuing through the overnight hours before tapering off from southwest to northeast between 3AM and 9AM on Monday.

The image below shows widespread rainfall (image loop below from 10AM through 3AM) during the afternoon hours today with pockets of moderate to at times heavy rain, especially in locations along and east of the interstate 95 corridor.  Rainfall amounts of one to two inches of rain is likely with some locations across central and southern Maryland possibly picking up as much as three inches of rain before the coastal storm pulls away from our area on Monday morning.

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Timing the Incoming Rain & Wind

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will break out predawn continuing through the midday hours on Sunday.

A period of very heavy rainfall is looking likely Sunday evening continuing through the overnight and tapering off during the Monday morning rush hour.

A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely with some locations picking upwards of 3 to 4 where training thunderstorms develop.

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