Models Models Everywhere: Thursday Update on Hurricane Irma

Below are images of the latest Ensemble Models showing their “spaghetti” tracks

– The GFS (US Global Forecast System model) and GEM (Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model) ensembles are currently showing an Irma track furthest to the east.

– The NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model) are currently showing an Irma track furthest to the west.

– The European Model Ensembles and JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) model currently track the storm somewhere in the middle of the guidance mentioned above.

Global Ensemble Forecast System model (GEFS, image courtesy WxBell):

Canadian Ensembles (GEPS Global Environmental Prediction System):

European Model Ensemble tracks:

– The European Model is my personal favorite as I find it typically to be the most reliable (especially with winter storm tracks)

Latest Operational Model Runs (images courtesy Tropical Tidbits):

– These are individual runs that update every 6 hours or so, and these forecast tracks will likely change as we move forward in time, so please do not utilize these to predict an exact landfall or outcome when there is currently such a large spread in the ensemble solutions above)

Japanese Operational: 8AM, Sunday Morning

US Navy Model: 8AM, Sunday Morning

US GFS (Global Forecast System): 8AM, Sunday Morning

Canadian Model (GEM): 8AM, Sunday Morning

The latest HMON Model (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic is a new Hurricane forecast system running operationally at the National Center for Environmental Prediction):

Finally, here is the latest WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model which is a sister model to the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast model – HWRF):


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s