Below are images of the latest Ensemble Models showing their “spaghetti” tracks
– The GFS (US Global Forecast System model) and GEM (Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model) ensembles are currently showing an Irma track furthest to the east.
– The NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model) are currently showing an Irma track furthest to the west.
– The European Model Ensembles and JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) model currently track the storm somewhere in the middle of the guidance mentioned above.
Global Ensemble Forecast System model (GEFS, image courtesy WxBell):