The image above shows a wide spread (latest Global Forecast Ensembles) in track outcomes of Irma after it passes through the Bahamas potentially threatening the Florida peninsula later this weekend.
Global Ensemble Forecast Spaghetti Tracks (image above courtesy WxBell) makes the case that everyone from Florida to the Carolinas needs to have their Hurricane Plans ready should Irma continue on its current forecast track.
The latest European Ensembles (image above) shows a slight adjustment to the east in track since its earlier runs (model outputs), but again, its too soon to know where exactly Irma ends up tracking. Tropical Storm force winds and storm surge will extend out several hundred miles from the eye-wall, so despite any fluctuations in track, Irma means business.
The latest HWRF model (above) shows where Irma may track over the next several days. This will change so please follow the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
Regarding potential impacts from Irma in the Washington Area: Tuesday through Wednesday would be the likely time frame for some rain and gusty winds. Depending upon her exact track, the DC Region could be in the right-front quadrant of Irma’s eventual path so the risk of tornadoes always increases should Irma move close enough to our region.