The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Washington Area under an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms on Monday afternoon.
The NAM’s WRF-NMM sounding (image below) indicates a very unstable atmosphere at 4PM Monday.
- Training thunderstorms are likely as the mid and upper level wind flow out of the southwest will be parallel to the surface front. PWATS will be running nearly 2″ meaning that an extremely moist atmosphere will be able to put down torrential rain in a short period of time.
- Some mid-level dry air will be capable of promoting wet microburst (damaging downdraft winds that can exceed 70 mph).
- Large hail will also be possible with steep lapse rates as an upper level trough begins to approach from the Great Lakes.
- The Tornado threat will be low due to unidirectional shear (thank goodness) but even an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
The next image (courtesy Pivotal Weather) shows one short-range high-resolution model’s future cast radar simulation from 16Z (12 Noon) through 00Z (8PM):