Lightning over Washington Monument, photo credit, Anthony Quintano
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the Washington Region under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Monday Afternoon & Evening.
Increasing clouds during the afternoon may limit surface instability however as the front approaches, a line of thunderstorms may cross the Blue Ridge during the late afternoon hours, passing through the DC Metropolitan Area during the evening hours. Any storms that do form will be capable of hail and damaging wind gusts.
Short-Range High Resolution Models are not in agreement on Convection (thunderstorm) potential across the DC Metropolitan Area:
The image below (courtesy TropicalTidbits) shows thunderstorms pushing through the DC Area between 6PM and 9PM.
However, the latest High Resolution NAM shows a “DC Split” with the heaviest storms remaining along the Pennsylvania-Maryland border with scattered thundershowers developing across the 95 corridor.
A second cold front will cross the area on Tuesday possibly sparking an isolated shower. Tuesday will be partly cloudy, breezy and mild with highs reaching the upper 70s. Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies with increasing clouds late and highs near 70 (another great day for outdoor exercise).
Heavy Rain a possibility Thursday into Friday:
The next storm system to watch will feature a potent upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States with ample moisture being pulled into the Mid-Atlantic. This storm system will present the best next chance of producing drought-relief across our area as widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain may impact our region.
Image below shows a trough digging across the east coast Thursday into Friday:
Latest GFS continues to show the potential for some widespread Rain with embedded Thunderstorms Thursday into Friday: