Wednesday Afternoon Update on DC Area Severe Weather Potential

The Washington Area is in for a wild Thursday as the probability is high for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday morning through the early afternoon hours.

Forecast Soundings:

The latest forecast sounding from the Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) valid at 10AM at National Airport (DCA) shows a medium chance of hail, higher chance of damaging wind gusts as well as adequate wind shear for isolated tornadoes Thursday morning through the early afternoon hours (until the cold front passes).


The latest NAM Forecast Sounding (valid at 2PM at National Airport) also shows a risk for hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes Thursday morning through the early afternoon. 

Update on Timing:

  • Forecast models are in general agreement that the time frame to watch closely will be from the morning rush hour through about 2PM.
  • The image below (courtesy tropical tidbits) shows the latest (18z) North American Model (NAM) future-cast radar simulation showing a nasty line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching the metropolitan Area between 9AM and 11AM with the cold front passing through the 95 corridor between Noon and 2PM. 

Latest HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is in agreement with the NAM model regarding timing:

  • Image below shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching our region from the west during the tail end of the morning rush hour.  The timing could change so don’t pay too much attention to the model below as the HRRR updates every hour.  
  • The general consensus suggests that thunderstorms will approach during the morning hours (between 7 and 9AM) and then crossing the 95 corridor around 10AM. Again, pay close attention to radar tomorrow as the timing could change. 

 

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