Wednesday Morning Update on Severe Weather Outbreak

The latest high-resolution models continue to indicate the potential for severe thunderstorms along and east of interstate 95, mainly across north-central Virginia (Fredericksburg) into southern Maryland during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, continuing through the morning rush hour. 

The latest high resolution models also show the potential for a second line of Severe Thunderstorms impacting the immediate Washington Area with the passage of the cold front during the early afternoon hours on Thursday.

Latest update on Timing:

– The image below (TropicalTidbits) shows the potential timing and where the thunderstorms may form.

I continue to be most worried about southern Maryland and Fredericksburg (points south and east) during the pre-dawn hours for the potential for super-cells (individual thunderstorms) that may contain strong rotation. 

Much of the DC metro area north and west of Fredericksburg and southern Maryland may primarily be under the gun for small hail and damaging winds during the pre-dawn hours… until the early afternoon hours when the cold front passes. 

Notice on the image below the “second line” of thunderstorms forming west of Washington and then pushes through DC between 2 and 4PM. 

The timing of this second line could slow down (with the cold front passage) meaning the afternoon rush hour could potentially be problematic.

I’ll update you again later today when the latest model data comes out. Have a great Wednesday! If you don’t own a weather radio… today would be a good day to buy one.

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