Timing the Potential for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Friday Afternoon

A warm front will slide northward out of central Virginia on Friday placing a portion of the DC region in the unstable “warm sector”.  Just how far north the front is able to make it will determine how many of us will be under the gun for some strong thunderstorms.  Thunderstorms could contain hail and damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorm over the skies of Washington, photo credit Amjeev

Here is my preliminary strong to severe thunderstorm threat map for Friday afternoon & evening:

Here is a look at the latest high-resolution North American Model (courtesy Tropical Tidbits):

Future cast radar showing a squall line possibly containing damaging wind gusts and hail rolling through the DC Metropolitan Region between 4PM and 8PM.

Watching the progression of the warm front

– Just how far north the warm front travels across our area will be key to where the strongest thunderstorms threaten.  Latest NAM model shows the immediate DC Area points south, east of the Blue Ridge as being the prime area to watch for the risk of damaging winds and hail.

Storm Prediction Center currently places us only in a “marginal risk” but once again if the warm front actually travels through our region, I would not be surprised to see a slight risk placed across portions of Virginia, D.C., and Maryland.

Drought Relief:

Thunderstorms would provide rainfall totals between a half and one inch, with some locations possibly picking up a bit more (1.25″).

Have a great Thursday!

4 Replies to “Timing the Potential for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Friday Afternoon”

  1. In these situations, my gut tells me that areas north of DC area will not be in the warm sector.
    Had this been February 28 through March 5, we could have 20 inches of snow on the ground after these two storms (tomorrow and Tuesday of next week). The good news is that rain is almost a guarantee tomorrow and is likely next week. If this pattern keeps it up, we may be in the “abnormally dry” or maybe even less by mid-May.

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    1. Yes Sir, the rain is definitely a God send. Hoping it wipes out the drought. Tomorrow afternoon looks quite turbulent depending upon how far north the warm front goes. Don’t even get me started on if these “noreasters had hit 3 weeks before” — you’re right! We’d be digging out from a ton of snow. Grrrrr

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  2. If anyone wanted to go to the Nationals exhibition game tomorrow to see what the Opening Day Roster could look like, that game will not happen. They should announce it tonight!

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    1. The game will probably be postponed or cancelled b/c 1 to 2″ of heavy rainfall with the potential for embedded strong to severe storms… or a squall line with hail/damaging winds and lightning… not a ‘good way to open a game’… and not safe for people to be out in lightning.

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