From Hail to Heavy Snow: It’s Gonna Be a Fun Evening & Overnight here in the Washington Area!

  • Will be watching locations from Richmond northward to Fredericksburg later this evening as a strong cold front crosses the area.  A line of thunderstorms may produce hail across these areas late this afternoon into the evening hours.


  • After the cold front slides through Washington a very impressive Vorticity Max (incredible lift and positive/counter-clockwise spin) in the atmosphere will be diving southward across the Washington Area as a surface low is now forecast to rapidly develop off of the Virginia/NC coast.  Cold air aloft will be pulled down toward the surface overnight as steady rain mixes with and then changes over to moderate snow.  


  • The snow could fall heavily at times Sunday morning between 4AM and 9AM.  I would not be surprised if someone reports a flash of lightning and thunder as this upper level feature rolls across our region pre-dawn Sunday.

The latest European Model (00Z) shows axis of heavier precipitation from south-central Pennsylvania to the Tidewater of Virginia overnight through Sunday morning. 

European forecast model 2 AM:

  • Look out Northern Virginia/northern Maryland …. a period of Snow will fall along this deepening trough axis later tonight!

European forecast model 8 AM:

  • Metropolitan Area getting in on the wet snow! (Yes those of you in central/southern Maryland, north-central Virginia (Fredericksburg) the Northern Neck and all of Northern Virginia (Stafford, Prince William, Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria) will likely see some snow falling.

Accumulations are possible on grassy surfaces in the Metropolitan Area.  How much snow could fall on grassy surfaces… right now a dusting to one inch is looking possible.

I will throw in there though that depending upon how heavy the snow falls on Sunday pre-dawn through about 9AM… I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of you in the immediate Metropolitan Area picking up a bit more.

Again this would be a wet snow falling on grassy surfaces and the main roadways should be okay with road surfaces well above freezing.  Some side streets could see some slush if the temperatures at the surface drop to 32 degrees.  

These are the weather systems that I love watching. Pick a location like Fredericksburg, VA for example… a location which could go from a hefty thunderstorm with pea to quarter sized hail later this evening… over to a steady cold rain then you wake up to steady (at times heavy) wet snow with potential accumulations on grassy surfaces.  It’s going to be wild! Enjoy the ride!


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