Stunning Sunrise over the Capital of the Free World Thursday morning (photo credit, NPS view from the Netherlands Carillon in Arlington, Virginia)
A warm front will attack the left-over cold air in place at the surface on Friday evening. With dry air in place within portions of the boundary layer, evaporation cooling may allow for precipitation to begin as a brief wintry mix of snow, sleet and or freezing rain before a change over to rain Friday evening/overnight. The northern Shenandoah Valley, extreme Northern Virginia and central and northern Maryland are the locations most susceptible to seeing any light mixing of precipitation.
Some rain and or snow showers are possible on Saturday night into Sunday morning as an area of low pressure dives into the base of a sharpening trough over the Mid-Atlantic. A light accumulation of wet snow is possible depending upon which model you look at from northern Maryland to Long Island on Sunday morning as a Nor’easter forms well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Notice I said, possible… as details remain murky at this time.
Short to Medium Range: the climb out of Winter
Temperatures early next week will slowly moderate with Tuesday of next week looking like our best shot of breaking the 60 degree mark.
The forecast then becomes very uncertain 7 days out as the latest Euro continues to show a trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic coastline and some ensembles pointing to the potential development of a coastal low pressure system:
- European Ensemble showing deep trough (blue/purple “bowling ball” over the Mid-Atlantic) diving underneath blocking (orange colors) draped over the top.
The Ensembles show the potential for surface low pressure development off the Mid-Atlantic coast on March 26th:
Pulling the European Meteogram (for snowfall) shows uncertainty but a general uptick in precipitation during this time frame:
- Bottom line: This is definitely an interesting patter to watch unfold. Those of you who have asked me if I can be certain that winter is over… to answer your question again, the answer is no, it is too soon to make such a call.
Have a fantastic Thursday.