“Revenge of Winter”?… Try the Revenge of Punxsutawney Phil

Low temperatures tonight under fresh snow pack will likely fall into the teens in the suburbs and all eyes will then be on the Tidal Basin over the next two mornings to see if temperatures dip at or below that critical 24 degree mark which according to the National Park Service could cause many of our blossoms to not reach peak this season.  

  • The winds will be gusting tonight, and as a result… I am hoping that enough “mixing” will keep temperatures along the warmer Tidal Basin just above that critical 24 degree mark (long shot) but there’s always hope.

How low could the mercury go? (GFS image below, courtesy WxBell showing potential surface temperatures at 8am Wednesday)

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A Much Warmer than Average March?

After an extremely challenging forecast and some “not so pleasant comments” from a few folks (who I suspect blindly follow some of the “expert” month to month forecasts from another website) I will remind them that I am well aware that my snow map was a bust across the metro region, but I’m sure that “the love” can be shared equally for a lot of very talented folks in the meteorology business.

  • For example my Weather Channel app went from “8 to 12” to “3 to 5” to “8 to 12” to “1 to 3” back to “5 to 8” and then back down to “1 to 3” in about a 48 hour period, so if you want to blast my snowfall map… go right on ahead. There’s lot’s of “love” to go around.  I love the Weather Channel, their content, their meteorologists, their winter storm experts… don’t get me wrong… I have watched them ever since I was a child… huge fan of them (always will be). The point is that this storm was definitely trending west in track and exactly  how far west that mid-level nose of warmer air would end up (responsible for the heavy sleet) was extremely hard to pin down.
  • What I am not a fan of is people who predict “A much warmer than average March with not much rain or snow ” on February 27th (March is not typically a month of steady temperatures): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/27/we-predict-a-much-warmer-than-normal-march-with-not-much-rain-or-snow/?utm_term=.3f05502364d3

Fast Forward to today:

  • 90% of our blossoms may not bloom and up to a foot of snow just fell in parts of Frederick County Maryland with 4 to 8 inches in Loudoun county and 1 to 3″ in DC.

Why did I predict a high chance that OPM would close?

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