Saturday Evening Update on Potential Blockbuster Nor’easter

Blustery cold view of the Nation’s Capital from the Netherland’s Carillon in Arlington, Virginia

Headlines (based on the latest model data that just came out):

  • Heavy Snow with 1 to 2″ per hour accumulation rates likely Monday evening through Tuesday morning; Scattered snow showers continuing Tuesday afternoon & evening.


  • Depending upon which model you look at, Sleet and or Rain could mix in along and east of interstate 95. This storm currently looks like a High-Impact event with most forecast models dropping between 5 and 10″ of snow (where no change-over to rain/sleet occurs). 


  • Phasing does not look to occur with this system until it is off the coast of New England; some models suggest the storm could track further east meaning southern Maryland and the eastern suburbs are not out of the woods and western zones could therefore end up seeing less snowfall accumulation if the track does shift east (this will be ironed out overnight and Sunday morning).


  • Damaging winds are possible Wednesday (gusts in excess of 50 mph) with widespread snow squalls & the potential for additional accumulations with temperatures holding at or below Freezing and wind chills ranging in the teens to teens below zero (wind chill advisories may need to be issued Tuesday night & Wednesday).

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Highly Uncertain Forecast South and East of DC

It is premature to post a snow map until Sunday morning in the Washington Region as until the exact track is pinned down we have precipitation type issues (where does the rain/snow line set up) during the event.

For those of you north and west of Washington and Baltimore the latest forecast modeling is still showing a significant snow storm. For those of you south and east, this could still wind up being a significant storm. 

The latest European operational model from overnight brings the “540 line” right into the District, meaning if this latest operational is correct (I will remind you that many of the ensembles keep the “540 line” south and east of Washington) the northern and western suburbs receive the heaviest snowfall accumulations while areas south and east get slop (wet snow) going over to a mix and ending as light snow.

Latest 00z operational European model showing 2am Tuesday (Monday night):

  • Notice the 540 line (blue line labeled 540)… that is the “rain/snow” line.

Latest 00z operational European model showing 8am Tuesday:

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