Wednesday Update on Interesting Mid-Atlantic Pattern

An arctic front will approach the DC Area on Friday morning, touching off some rain, sleet and snow with any accumulation remaining along the Pennsylvania-Maryland border. Image below is for Friday 7am (pink represents sleet or a mix of rain and snow). 

Any accumulation looks to remain across beautiful southern Pennsylvania and northern Maryland:

Odds continue to increase that the “weekend storm” remains a “Southern Affair” with lot’s of “heated local gossip” over a bunch of nothing (maybe a sloppy inch or two) causing hysteria, panic and school closures in North Carolina… bless their little hearts:

 

So between Friday and Sunday (don’t cancel your plans), the broken record Winter of 2017 “Washington DC Snow Hole” Continues… look at that beautiful “white zone of dead ugly grass and barren trees” (the kind of weather that half of the people in our region just love during winter) add in some dreary clouds and you get the picture.

I have to wonder if the top of the Washington Monument has some aluminum foil high-tech weather-controlling machine that keeps the 30 mile radius of DC protected from those “horrible” beautiful flakes of snow. Call your congresswoman or congressman … maybe the folks at the NWS have an answer. 

Then the upper-level pattern begins to get interesting:

  • Early next week the jet stream becomes more amplified with a deep trough dropping into the eastern United States

 

  • By then an area of high pressure is forecast to be situated across eastern Canada, the midwest and New England (source for cold air)

 

GFS Ensemble (GEFS): 

  • The most lift (rising air) in a trough is going to be located in the right-front quadrant (circled in red below) and this is the area where you look for the surface low pressure system to develop

 

Latest European Ensemble shows a deep trough as well:

Looking at the Surface:

Latest operational GFS model (this is not an ensemble) but it drives home my point that the upper-level pattern shaping up early next week is favorable for explosive coastal storm development.

And now looking at the latest Canadian forecast model:

*The European Ensembles also show a coastal low pressure system developing somewhere off of the southeastern US coastline but track from there remains uncertain*

Lastly I’ll show you the latest NAVGEM (US Navy model):

  • Has a storm but has it forming well offshore…

So there you have it… according to the latest models, the Washington Area continues to get shafted through the weekend (unless tomorrow’s operational models start to inch back to the north with track) and then we wait to see where a surface low pressure develops on Monday into Tuesday of next week.

– Hint:  With our luck of late, it will probably develop, rapidly deepen but be just too far east of DC to provide snow… and then slam NYC to Boston (eye-roll).

Have a fantastic Wednesday!

 

 

 

4 thoughts on “Wednesday Update on Interesting Mid-Atlantic Pattern

  1. Andy

    Just looked at the 06z GFS and WOW! At least the potential for a really big one! Of course, a bit too early to buy into it, but as Louie Allen, the old time DC TV weatherman used to say, “The ducks are on the pond!”

    Like

  2. Brendan

    I just knew the weekend storm would be a bust. That’s how this whole winter has been!
    The storm next week looks very interesting and most models showing it makes me want to watch. Just look at the blocking to our north, if this holds stlong, we would be digging out. I’ll keep putting faish! Keep up the work!

    Like

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