The models have been shifting south in track with a wave of low pressure that is forecast to move out of the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic during the upcoming weekend.
- There is a lot of forecast uncertainty (no surprises here) with regards to whether or not an area of arctic high pressure over New England will hold in place and whether or not a “Miller B” -type of storm will occur where the parent low pressure over the midwest weakens while a coastal storm takes over and drives northward.
The image above shows the latest GFS operational forecast trend model for one 0’clock (overnight Saturday, March 11th)
- Notice how the trend with each new run keeps shows an arctic high building (and holding firm) over Quebec and how that shunts the storm track further south as well as the threat of heavy snow and ice just north of the Pennsylvania-Maryland border.
- If the trends continue to push a bit further south, we may wind up with a potential threat of wintry precipitation across the DC Area this weekend (low confidence as of now but something to watch closely).
The Canadian model currently shows an accumulating snow event across the northern half of the DC Region this weekend: