Incoming Drought Relief this Evening &Timing Wednesday’s Thunderstorms

I took this picture of the gorgeous Japanese Tulip trees blooming in Arlington National Cemetery, in April of 2015 (@DCstorms)

The latest high-resolution models hold off on steady rain until the second half of this afternoon’s rush hour (6PM in downtown DC). I’m hoping the rain holds off until the end of the rush hour but regardless of timing we desperately need the rainfall as moderate drought conditions continue across portions of the Washington DC Area.

hrrr_rain

How much rain might fall in your backyard? 

  • A general quarter of an inch of soaking rain can be expected with some locations picking up to a half-inch of rain were embedded thunder-showers occur.

hrrr_rainfall

Moving on to Wednesday’s Potential Afternoon Severe Weather:

  • As of this morning’s latest high-resolution NAM (North American Model) the line of thunderstorms associated with the strong cold front could arrive just in time for the afternoon rush hour (5 to 7pm).

nam_06z

Watching a fast-moving Clipper Thursday night into Friday:

  • The latest GFS control model runs overnight (the model outputs that are available every 6 hours) have shifted the track of the clipper south into the DC Area and are now in agreement with the European model.

 

  • The ensembles however do not look very impressive yet as a high March sun-angle would preclude any potential snow flakes from sticking if the system does in fact bring light snow during the first half of the day on Friday.

 

  • I am watching closely to see if the models will speed up the arrival time to pre-dawn Friday. If the clipper can track just south of the DC Area, and arrive during the overnight hours on Thursday (pre-dawn Friday) then it becomes more probable that some very light snow accumulation would be possible.  But both the track and timing need to align in the ensembles (this has not happened yet) and as I said yesterday, I’m holding off judgement until Wednesday’s evening updated forecast models.

 

 

One Reply to “Incoming Drought Relief this Evening &Timing Wednesday’s Thunderstorms”

  1. I am not an expert regarding convective events, but feel that Wednesday’s set up for severe weather looks potentially quite dangerous.

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