Once the warm front moves through later today the Mid-Atlantic will be under the influence of southwesterly flow out ahead of the next strong cold front forecast to arrive during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.
March will roar in like a lion, starting out with the potential for another round of strong storms and mild weather and ending the day with modified arctic air behind the cold front.
Watching a Clipper on Friday as some light snow may impact portions of the Mid-Atlantic
The Global Forecast Model (GFS) shows a clipper diving south out of the midwest on Thursday and passing just north of the DC Area on Friday. The European model on the other hand passes this system further south with a better chance of seeing some light snow.
- Temperatures on Friday morning are forecast to be cold enough in our northern and western suburbs for snow. Timing of the clippers arrival and exact track are key as an arrival Thursday night and a track just south of DC would allow for some accumulation across parts of our area.
Latest European Forecast Model:
- Snow (shades of blue) break out Friday morning across northern Maryland (if this model solution is correct)
- March sun angle is higher so again, track, timing and strength of this clipper could mean the difference between a conversation light snow falling, no snow falling, light cold rain falling, or a light accumulating (nuisance) storm system. Definitely something to watch as we head into the middle portion of the week. Modeling will likely become more accurate after Wednesday’s cold front crosses the area.
Latest European Snowfall Accumulation potential:
- Again we are still 4 days out from this potential event and a track further south and sooner (Thursday night) could bring some light snowfall accumulations right into the Metropolitan Area.
Pattern Remains active through Mid-March:
- If the teleconnection forecasts are accurate, we should start to see a ridge of high pressure building out west with blocking developing over the North Atlantic (-NAO).
- Notice the bright orange colors pushing northward over the western United States and the trough (blue colors) developing over the eastern United States. Also notice the bright orange colors (blocking) developing over Greenland.
18Z (1PM) Global Forecast Model from yesterday afternoon shows how this pattern could evolve into some “fun” along the east coast:
Regardless of whether snow falls in DC before the month of March is out, we are certainly going to have the opportunity for several waves of cold air to infiltrate the eastern United States with several shots of arctic air slated to move in.
- First shot of cold air will arrive behind the cold front on Thursday with a reinforcing shot behind Friday’s exiting clipper. The upcoming weekend looks cold with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s (much more early February like than early March).
- Second wave of a cold air (modified) arctic intrusion may occur between March 7th and March 13th across much of the eastern third of the United States
I saw an interesting blog comment put out last week while we were basking in record warmth that said the ground-hog who predicted 6 more weeks of Winter “couldn’t be located for comment”. I’m hoping that Mr. Phil will come out of his shelter and give a nice press conference to the “Winter is Over” crowd as winter-like temperatures are certainly returning over the next several weeks. It will be interesting to watch the teleconnections as if they do actually move in the right/wrong direction (depending upon if you love/hate snow)… we could be surprised to see old man winter pay DC a visit before the Cherry Blossoms on the Basin are in full bloom.
One heavy wet March Snowstorm could aid in the snow-drought across between the mountains and southern Maryland (both of which are the few who saw snow this year):
Average Snowfall in the Washington Area and Washington Region:
I hope everyone has a great week! Be safe and be kind to one another. Updates to come on possible strong storms Wednesday and possible Clipper on Friday.