Temperature Roller Coaster Now through March 1st with 80’s Possible

The next chance for temperatures to drop below freezing (image below courtesy Wxbell) will be behind the cold front (Sunday night into Monday morning), mainly in our northern and western outer suburbs:

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As the high pressure system shifts offshore, we will be off to the races with more blow-torch record warmth with next Wednesday (March 1st) possibly making it into the lower 80s across parts of our region:

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The upper-level southeast ridge is killing me and is very typical with a Negative PNA (Trough out west, ridge wants to build into the southeastern United States). Check out the latest GEFS model (Global Ensemble Forecast System) showing upper level height anomalies over the United States:

  • By March 1st, (as March has roared in like a lion in the Midwest with over a foot of snow)… the Mid-Atlantic will be basking in record warmth once again as this ridge continues to build in strong across the eastern seaboard. Notice the strong trough out west with the cold temperatures continuing (this pattern just doesn’t want to break down yet).  Image below courtesy TropicalTidbits. 

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The Ensembles for Snow through March 01, 2017 (images courtesy WxBell):

  • GFS Ensembles: Snow remains across the Midwest to New England 

gefs_snow_ens_ma_32

  • European Ensemble Mean through Wednesday March 1, 2017: showing consistency with the GFS

 

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I’m ready to buy a plane ticket and head to Minneapolis where there are Winter Storm Watches out for over a foot of snow and potential blizzard conditions!

The pattern could still change at some point in March… we’ve seen mild winters before throw an ugly “reality check” in March.

I am not trying to sound “optimistic”, I am just saying that scientifically the idea that someone can claim with certainty that no snow will fall in DC over an entire 31 day period (March 2017) is BS.  If no snow falls in March… these folks making such claims simply got lucky. 

***I will end my post with a shout out to Weather Man Doug Hill.  Doug Hill, your Winter Forecast so far has been spot on Sir. Kudos to you (I also enjoy the hint of sarcasm with all the weather jargon terms you throw in and then letting folks know that a winter forecast is simply a guess).***

http://wjla.com/news/local/2016-2017-winter-weather-outlook

 

 

3 Replies to “Temperature Roller Coaster Now through March 1st with 80’s Possible”

  1. The new GFS is showing quite a cold snap around 3/7, then a possible major snowstorm going out to our south.

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  2. There goes the 28th threat from earlier inthe week!
    One thing to think about: you don’t want it to get so warm too soon so things start growing only to get a big cooldown where everything dies (I’m think blossoms and grasses.) Go to Minneapolis and ski then!

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