As we round out the end of February and head into the first week of March. I am closely watching the 27th – 28th of February for a potential snow event somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic.
Image below (courtesy TropicalTidbits) shows the latest 12z (7AM EST) Global Forecast System (GFS) “trend model” showing the past ten model runs for the morning of Tuesday, February 28th:
- Remember, you are looking at the past ten GFS forecast outputs for where a storm system may be located on Tuesday February 28th.
- Notice that with each subsequent model run the area of low pressure drastically shifts further south between the midwest… then near NYC… and finally south of DC.
- Notice that the area of high pressure (cold air source) also shifts from the east of us (bad if you want snow) to the north of this system.
- Also notice… the storm system over northeastern Texas on the last frame. Could we be looking at a stationary front setting up with cold air over our region and warm air just to the south with waves running along the boundary? You can get some VERY HEAVY WET SNOW in late winter with this setup.
- Bottom line: I will be watching the ensembles of the Euro and GFS to see if they also begin shifting south with a storm system during this time.
The latest teleconnection forecast (if it holds) is very interesting:
The latest Euro forecasts the NAO to head to its neutral to negative phase as we head into early March
The latest Euro also forecast the Arctic Oscillation to head into its neutral to negative phase as we head into early March
Finally, the latest Euro forecast the EPO to head into its negative phase:
A train of coastal storms seems to be on the forecast menu through early March. Below is the latest Trend model forecast from the GFS for Thursday March 2nd:
- Since this is a GFS operational run and not an ensemble I am taking this with a grain of salt. The point I am trying to make is that for those of you who think Winter is certainly over… you might be surprised by what nature has up its sleeve next month in the eastern third of the nation. I see a very active March across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and New England.
- I am not promising you a snow storm… I am saying there is the possibility for a storm to impact our area from late February through March as bitter cold air over Canada battles warm air over the south.