Temperature Roller Coaster Ride Next Week

After a chilly weekend temperatures will soar into the 60s during the middle portion of next week followed by a chilly shot of arctic air. The 500mb chart (image below courtesy Tropical Tidbits) visually shows the ridges of high pressure (orange and red colors) and the troughs, or dips in the jet stream (blue colors) between Monday and Thursday of next week.

  • Notice the fast west to east flow across the Pacific Ocean and tendency for troughs to swing into the western United States (responsible for the drought relief across California).


  • Mild conditions in DC will abruptly come to an end on Thursday as an arctic front blasts through the DC Area. But given the strong Pacific Jet stream, even this brief period of cold weather will quickly be replaced by mild air behind it. 


Surface Map showing temperature anomalies in Celsius:

  • Spring-like warmth Monday through Wednesday followed by a blast of modified arctic air Thursday.


For those of you who want to see the forecasted surface air temperatures during this period, here is the latest GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System):


Finally, here is the latest GFS Ensemble (chart form, courtesy WxBell) showing forecasted lows and highs each day at DCA (National Airport):

  • Caution… I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in the forecast beyond 7 to 10 days and will explain why in my next post for those of you who may have prematurely “thrown the towel in on snow”. 


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