I don’t believe that the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) has a good handle on the clipper that will impact our area on Sunday night and Monday morning.
The European and Canadian models have been much more consistent in depicting a period of light snow or snow showers Sunday night through Monday morning. Temperatures will be cold enough that whatever falls will stick to untreated surfaces possibly impacting the morning rush hour. Let’s take a look at the latest snowfall forecasts from both the Canadian and European.
Latest (12z) Canadian Model (GEM), courtesy WxBell:
Uncertainty exists on where exactly the axis of best lift sets up as the short-wave (upper level “ripple” in the atmosphere) rolls across our region on Sunday night into Monday.
The best guess based on an average of the images above currently indicate that this event is looking more like a conversational light snow with a dusting to maybe one inch for most.
European Mean of the above ensembles:
A second clipper will dive into the northern Mid-Atlantic (Pennsylvania and New York) on Wednesday and i don’t expect more than maybe a scattered flurry or rain shower with this system.
I will be watching closely the first full weekend in February as a southern tracking storm system may finally bring in Gulf moisture on top of an arctic air mass over the Mid-Atlantic. If everything goes right, we may finally be talking about our first plowable snow… stay tuned!