A Nor’easter will ride up the Mid-Atlantic coastline bringing our region some periods of heavy rain, rumbles of thunder, gusty winds and even some heavy, wet, snow in the higher elevations of the Appalachians.
The latest High Resolution North American Model (NAM) shows the evolution in storm track of an inland low pressure system eventually spawning a coastal storm as it rides up the New Jersey coastline before pulling out to sea.
A period of heavy rain and or thunderstorms is possible Monday during the mid-morning hours through the first half of the afternoon rush hour. Wind gusts close to 50 mph are possible in some of these thunderstorms. Areas along the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac could see sustained winds of 30 to 4o mph with gusts to 58 mph!
Here’s a look at Rainfall and Snowfall Potential:
- Generally one to three inches of rain is likely with higher amounts possible in locations that receive training thunderstorms or the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge mountains where orographic lift will enhance totals (image below courtesy WeatherBell).
The latest NAM showing Snowfall Accumulation Potential:
- I think temperatures are too cold with the NAM so my current thinking is more in line with a blend of the Euro and NAM models with 2 to 6″ in the higher elevations with some of the ski resorts of West Virginia possibly picking up a bit more.
I think the Euro has a better handle on the Snowfall Potential:
- Two to Five inches likely across the higher elevations of Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Damaging Wind Gusts Possible:
- The latest North American Model (NAM) below showing wind gusts during the mid-morning hours on Monday. Notice that the Metro Area will likely see winds gusting to 45mph. Locations over the Chesapeake Bay could see winds gusting close to 60 mph in some of the squalls.
Once this storm pulls away, temperatures will begin to cool towards the latter half of the week making it feel more like late January with highs in the lower to middle 40s.