Potential increasing for Heavy Rain and Snow across the Mid-Atlantic early next week

There has been an interesting development among the latest forecast models today with the potential for a very complex storm system set to impact the Mid-Atlantic and New England early next week.  For one, the NAO is forecast to be negative and an arctic high is forecast to build over eastern Canada. The trough is forecast to become negatively tilted and if future runs begin to consolidate on more of a coastal track with colder air sliding further south, we could be talking about heavy wet snow in the higher terrain west of the big cities or possibly rain going over to heavy wet snow in the big cities.  As of now, the models favor rain in the big cities with the potential for heavy snow in interior sections but this is definitely not set in stone.

Here is the latest “Trend GFS” model (image courtesy tropicaltidbits) showing the last 5 runs of the GFS showing the potential location of the coastal storm on Monday at 7pm next week):

  • Notice that with each subsequent run for the same time frame (7pm Monday of next week) the coastal low pressure system has trended deeper (stronger) and further offshore.
  • Also notice the 1026 mb High pressure system anchored over eastern Canada (the blue H)… if future model runs continue to deepen this system colder air could get drawn closer into the storm system setting up the stage for a heavy, wet snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England. 

gfs_trend

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