Winter Weather Advisories Issued; Updated Map as Latest Models Indicate Warmer Temperature Profiles

dcstorms-com_final_call_ice_accumulation

The latest forecast models have trended warmer with the vertical temperature profiles across our region.  Snow is now looking like the least likely precipitation type with sleet and freezing rain being the main threat.

  • Precipitation amounts look fairly light with “periods” of sleet and freezing rain more likely than widespread moderate freezing rain.

 

  • I still think that the greatest threat of freezing rain amounts just shy of a quarter of an inch will be those of you in the sheltered valleys along and just west of the Blue Ridge.

 

  • The immediate Washington Metropolitan Area (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Montgomery, Prince Georges and the District) will likely end up with a mixture of sleet and freezing rain with accumulations below a tenth of an inch of ice and a light accumulation of sleet (frozen rain drops). With that said, untreated roadways and sidewalks will be very treacherous and icing, no matter how light should never be taken lightly.

 

Here’s the more bullish North American Model (NAM) showing the potential accumulations of the various precipitation types:

Sleet (orange); Freezing Rain (pink), Rain (green), and Snow (blue).

hires_ptype_acc_washdc_40

Lastly for those of us Snow Lovers… here is the European model looking at Snowfall potential (very slim chance that anyone receives more than a dusting at best):

ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_8

After a lull in the precipitation Saturday evening through much of Sunday, a second bout of freezing rain or drizzle is possible on Sunday evening.

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day is looking cloudy and cold with temperatures holding in the middle to upper 30s.

 

 

2 thoughts on “Winter Weather Advisories Issued; Updated Map as Latest Models Indicate Warmer Temperature Profiles

  1. Brendan

    The models are always terrible at these events. We could either but below freezing with a mix of precipitation or we could be above freezing with rain. It always seems colder than the models say. This is a classic cold air damming. Do you think the High Resolution runs will trend colder again?

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    • Tim

      They could, the dew points are dropping into the mid 20s at Dulles. It’s possible that the models will trend colder tomorrow. But with that said, this still doesn’t look like a Snow event… mostly sleet and or freezing rain. Maybe an hour of some light snow before the change-over.

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