Latest Japanese (JAMSTEC) Model Prediction for Spring

temp2-glob-mam2017-1jan2017

The latest JAMSTEC model is out (released January 1st) and if it is accurate we may quickly head into Spring with above average temperatures during the March-April-May 90 day period.

tprep-glob-mam2017-1jan2017

What we don’t want is to see a drought and the good news is that the JAMSTEC model is also currently predicting above average precipitation over the eastern third of the nation.

 

After this weekend’s wintry mix a gradual warm up is in store but most of the longer-range models suggest that another arctic blast may impact the eastern half of the nation the last week in January.

Here is the Climate Forecast System showing a “blow torch” over the eastern United States the 21st through the 26th of January:

  • It definitely appears that a major “January Thaw” is in the cards between Inauguration Day and the 26th of January.

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_2017011312_51

But a major pattern flip is possible from late January into early February:

  • The green colors over much of the nation indicate temperatures runningĀ much colderĀ than average.

cfs_anom_t2m_noram_2017011312_81

Based on the analogs I chose in my Winter Forecast, I expected December to deliver some cold followed by a more mild January and then a brutally cold February and March. Hopefully for those of you that love snow we can get some moisture to meet up with some arctic air.

 

 

 

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