The latest JAMSTEC model is out (released January 1st) and if it is accurate we may quickly head into Spring with above average temperatures during the March-April-May 90 day period.

What we don’t want is to see a drought and the good news is that the JAMSTEC model is also currently predicting above average precipitation over the eastern third of the nation.

After this weekend’s wintry mix a gradual warm up is in store but most of the longer-range models suggest that another arctic blast may impact the eastern half of the nation the last week in January.

Here is the Climate Forecast System showing a “blow torch” over the eastern United States the 21st through the 26th of January:

• It definitely appears that a major “January Thaw” is in the cards between Inauguration Day and the 26th of January.

But a major pattern flip is possible from late January into early February:

• The green colors over much of the nation indicate temperatures running much colder than average.

Based on the analogs I chose in my Winter Forecast, I expected December to deliver some cold followed by a more mild January and then a brutally cold February and March. Hopefully for those of you that love snow we can get some moisture to meet up with some arctic air.