Latest Japanese (JAMSTEC) Model Prediction for Spring


The latest JAMSTEC model is out (released January 1st) and if it is accurate we may quickly head into Spring with above average temperatures during the March-April-May 90 day period.


What we don’t want is to see a drought and the good news is that the JAMSTEC model is also currently predicting above average precipitation over the eastern third of the nation.


After this weekend’s wintry mix a gradual warm up is in store but most of the longer-range models suggest that another arctic blast may impact the eastern half of the nation the last week in January.

Here is the Climate Forecast System showing a “blow torch” over the eastern United States the 21st through the 26th of January:

  • It definitely appears that a major “January Thaw” is in the cards between Inauguration Day and the 26th of January.


But a major pattern flip is possible from late January into early February:

  • The green colors over much of the nation indicate temperatures runningĀ much colderĀ than average.


Based on the analogs I chose in my Winter Forecast, I expected December to deliver some cold followed by a more mild January and then a brutally cold February and March. Hopefully for those of you that love snow we can get some moisture to meet up with some arctic air.




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