Nail Biter of a Forecast for Interstate 95 Points East

The latest North American Model (NAM) is a “Snow Lovers Dream” with accumulating snow making it as far west as the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge on Saturday.  This model is currently the outlier, meaning it is the “odd man out” with the Euro and GFS currently showing a track much further offshore, sparing the Washington Area from a significant snow storm.


If the NAM model above is in fact accurate, this is how much snow we could expect by Saturday Evening:


Why am I not taking the bait? Because the GFS and European Operational and Ensemble models are not in agreement.

Latest European: 

  • Snow stays well south and east of DC


Individual European Ensembles:

  • A vast majority of the 50 individual images (ensembles) below continue to show the heavy snow amounts (bright pink colors) staying in northeastern North Carolina, the Tidewater of Virginia and across the Del-Mar-Va coastline.


  • IF future runs of the ensembles start to creep the snow to the west… then maybe the bullish North American Model is onto something.  


Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensembles:

  • The GFS Ensembles also keep the heaviest snow well south and east of DC, with southern Maryland getting ‘clipped’ with several inches.


What would need to happen for me to buy into the NAM solution? I would need to see the overnight future runs of the GFS and European start shifting the track of this coastal storm further west.  Is this possible? Yes.  Is it Likely? Stranger things have happened. 

I think those of you in lower southern Maryland and the Northern Neck of Virginia that are currently under the Winter Storm Watch have the potential for a 3 to 6″ snow storm (lucky you!) 

Here is the latest WPC (Weather Prediction Center) snowfall accumulation potential for Saturday:

  • Look at that massive “Snow Hole” right over the majority of the immediate DC Area!


I will of course be watching for any shifts in track, but right now I am not very optimistic for the snow-starved souls across DC, Northern Virginia and suburban Maryland. 

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