Slick Travel on Untreated Roadways Possible Thursday Evening

The latest North American Model (NAM) is out and we are now 48 hours away from our possible first inch of snow across the Washington DC Metropolitan Area.

While any deviation in temperatures or a slight change in track can change the forecast, I wanted my readers to have an idea of what we are seeing in the short-range models.

First up let’s look at the future cast from the latest NAM model beginning Thursday at 4pm (21z) Thursday and ending at 1am (06z) Friday.

  • Blue colors indicate snow breaking out across the Metropolitan Area during the tail end of the evening rush hour.

 

  • This still looks like a quick hitting event as the system is forecast to really buzz out to sea rather quickly, still grassy surfaces in areas that receive a short period of some steady light snow could pick up a dusting to an inch.

6d39a713-0193-4040-8376-770e3dd70e03.gif

Same Model (NAM) showing Snowfall Accumulation potential (image courtesy WxBell) by 1am Friday:

hires_snow_washdc_61.png

Next up let’s look at the latest SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) for DCA (National Airport)

  • The green line on the graph below shows the ensemble mean of 1/2″ of snow with the high end totals coming in at 1.5″

 

  • Generally speaking, one could deduce that locations that receieve several hours of steady snow with temperatures near the freezing mark could wind up with a solid inch of snow or possibly as much as 1.5″.

KDCA_2017010315_6snow.png

Temperatures right now look marginal (lower to middle 30s along the 95 corridor) but with temperature near freezing in the immediate western suburbs, any accumulation could cause slick travel conditions on untreated roadways.

hires_t2m_washdc_58.png

 

One Reply to “Slick Travel on Untreated Roadways Possible Thursday Evening”

  1. I recall a couple of overachieving clipper systems 2-3 years back that produced a surprise 2-4″ of low water content snow in the DC area, so that is my hope!

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