Round #2? Tuesday update on Possible Weekend Storm

The million dollar question right now is what happens with a piece of energy diving toward the Gulf coast on Friday? Does it phase with the northern branch and ride up the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline providing a major snow storm? Or does phasing not occur (positively tilted trough) and it slides quickly out to sea after delivering several inches of snow to the Carolinas?

Latest GFS and GEM (Canadian):

The image below (courtesy TropicalTidbits) shows the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model forecasting the time frame between 1AM Saturday and 1AM Sunday:

  • Future time-lapse below shows an un-phased system with two separate waves of low pressure sliding well off of the southeastern coastline with little fanfare in our region.

GFS_Weekend_Event.gif

The image below (courtesy TropicalTidbits) shows the latest Canadian (GEM) model forecasting the same time frame as the GFS above:

GEM_Weekend_Event.gif

  • Notice that the latest Canadian tracks the system further west and shows one main low pressure system instead of the two separarte areas of low pressure in the GFS model.

 

And for today’s Breaking News in the world of weather, the latest European model from overnight shifted the track much closer to the coast.  

We need to wait and see if this is a trend before we start getting excited. 

Here is yesterday’s (12z) run of the European modeling 7AM Saturday:

  • Notice the snow stays across eastern North Carolina with a track much further out to sea.

ecmwf_slp_precip_01021712z_Sat_7am.png

Here is the latest run of the Euro modeling 7AM Saturday:

ecmwf_slp_precip_00z_Sat_7AM.png

  • Notice the latest run of the Euro (image above) shows much heavier precipitation falling further north and west than it showed in the previous run.

 

Let’s compare the old run of the Euro for Snowfall Accumulation to the latest run:

Old Run (12z Monday):

ecmwf_tsnow_ma_27.png

Latest Run (00z Tuesday): 

ecmwf_tsnow_ma_25.png

Is the European forecast model on to something? Will future runs continue to shift the track further west and up the coast?

The biggest snow storms that bury the BOS-WASH (the Boston to Washington corridor, home to 55 million Americans) come from systems that track from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod

While this storm may very well stay too far out to sea it is something that needs to be monitored closely

To be clear, I do not currently find the European Ensembles to be very promising as of now (meaning they are not *yet* showing consistency in producing heavy snow across the DC Area this weekend).  With that said, this is a fluid situation and as we get closer to Wednesday & Thursday the models will hopefully start to zero in on a solution.

For those of you that didn’t know, I have also been updating via Twitter, in other words, if you subscribe to receive my posts via email and do not visit my website, you might miss some of the updates that I am putting out on Twitter.  You can follow me on Twitter @DCstorms.  My Twitter feed is also located on the right hand side of my website as well. 

 

 

 

One Reply to “Round #2? Tuesday update on Possible Weekend Storm”

  1. I think we have lost, but there does seem to be some predispostion for these storms to end up tracking a bit further north than forecast. For example, I don’t believe the models gave much to Harrisburg or NYC ahead of last January’s blizzard, but both places got slammed with close to 30″ of snow.

    As you said, this situation still bears watching.

    Like

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