Round #1 …. Light Snow Likely Thursday Night & Friday Morning

The Washington Area may receive its first light accumulation of snow of the season Thursday afternoon into the first half of Friday according to the latest forecast models.

There is growing consistency among the GFS, GEM (Canadian) and European models that a coastal storm will develop just off of the Carolina coastline before zipping quickly off to the northeast, far enough away to spare us a significant snowfall but close enough to possibly bring the first inch of snow to parts of the region.

Let’s take a look at the latest information (note: subject to change and will need to be monitored)

Latest Global Forecast System (GFS) model:

The image below is from the 12z (this morning’s latest run at 7AM) GFS showing light snow rapidly developing across the Metro Area possibly during the Thursday evening rush hour but then quickly dissipating from north to south on Friday morning.

12zgfs_snow

Potential Snowfall Accumulation (latest GFS) if the above scenario is correct:

  • Dusting to 2″ with the higher totals being south and east of Washington

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_ma_15

Moving on to the Canadian (GEM) model:

The Canadian model (image below courtesy TropicalTidbits) shows a similar scenario as the GFS with light snow developing Thursday afternoon/evening and then tapering off rapidly on Friday morning.

00z_gem_snow

Potential Snowfall Accumulation (latest GEM) if the above scenario is correct:

cmc_snow_acc_nc_15

And now my favorite model (The European):

  • The next two images (courtesy WxBell) are taken from the European Ensembles which show a decent clustering of “red L’s” (indicative of the potential locations of the area of low pressure) on the maps (decent amount of consistency the closer they are to each other).

1am Friday morning (Thursday night): Notice the clustering of “Ls” on the map just off of the North Carolina coastline.

eps_slp_lows_ma_14

7am Friday morning: Notice the clustering of “Ls”  east of the VA/NC border, far enough out to sea to prevent heavy snow in our area but close enough for a dusting to maybe 2″ in spots.

eps_slp_lows_ma_15

Potential Snowfall Accumulation (latest European) if the above scenario is correct:

eps_snow_c_ma_17_fri

The latest European forecast model for snowfall accumulation (image above) currently predicts:

  • One-half to one inch of snow across the DC Metropolitan Area
  • One to two inches across lower southern Maryland, the northern neck of Virginia and the eastern shore of Maryland.
  • Two to three inches across the beaches of Maryland and Delaware

Disclaimer: 

Any future adjustments in track closer to the coast or a decrease in forward speed could increase accumulations across the DC Area

Any future adjustments in track further off the coast or an increase in forward speed could decrease accumulations across the DC Area.

 

One Reply to “Round #1 …. Light Snow Likely Thursday Night & Friday Morning”

  1. What about the saturday time frame? Is that a no go? Your post says “Round 1” is a round 2 still possible?

    Like

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