Monday Morning Update on Chances for Late Week Snow

Uncertainty continues (and will likely continue until we get to Wednesday) regarding the eventual evolution of the pattern late this week into the weekend.

Chances remain pretty low for some scattered snow showers or flurries Thursday night into Friday as the arctic front approaches.

Does a second wave of low pressure develop over the southeast and then move just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline? Or does this feature rush out to sea (zero phasing, progressive jet stream pattern)?

Here is the latest European Ensemble Control model:

eps_snow_c_ma_33

Here are the various European Ensembles:

Looking at all 50, as of now there are equal chances of light snow, no snow and a lot of snow.

eps_snow_25_ma_29

eps_snow_50_ma_29

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (the American built model):

  • There hasn’t been a whole lot of consistency with each run of the GFS with last nights 00z showing heavy snow impacting the Mid-Atlantic and this morning’s 06z run showing the system skirting the Tidewater of Virginia with several inches of snow before heading straight out to sea.

gefs_snow_ens_ma_30

We will know a lot more on Wednesday as the pieces of energy responsible for the eventual evolution are better ingested into the models.