Here is the latest High-Resolution North American Model (NAM) showing snow (blue), freezing rain (pink) and rain (green):
- That all important “540” line races north as the precipitation is trying to work in crushing our hopes of getting our first inch of snow in the DC Area.
- This will end up being a Freezing Rain event with most locations picking up a few hundredths of an inch (a glaze of ice). Those of you across extreme northern Virginia and northern Maryland will take the brunt of this first winter weather event with ice accretion between a tenth and a quarter of an inch possible by Saturday morning.
- Tomorrow we will need to monitor the latest short-range models to see if the “dry slot” that is shown in the model above holds (notice most of the brighter pinks remain well north of the immediate DC Area.
Here is the latest SREF ensemble for National Airport verifying that at best, the immediate metro area could pick up maybe a trace (if the flurries even are able to reach the ground as the atmosphere will be incredibly dry).
Finally take a look at the Weather Prediction Center’s latest snowfall accumulation potential map:
- Notice that you have to head up towards the Pennsylvania border or Garrett County Maryland to even expect anything more than a trace.