The image above shows the potential set up a week from now and will need to be monitored very closely.
Some models drop significant amounts of snow on our region before a change over to a possibly prolonged period of sleet (frozen raindrops) and then freezing rain (rain that freezes on contact).
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) – Snowfall Accumulation through Tuesday December 20th (image below courtesy TropicalTidbits):
Notice the “Glacier” covering the Northeast Megalopolis from Northern Virginia to Boston with interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and New England buried under over a foot of snow. The favored Lake Effect Snow zones could have upwards of 3 feet on top of what is already on the ground!
European Ensembles (Images below courtesy WxBell):
Ensembles above averaged out into one map: (Keep in mind that we could be looking at significant amounts of snow and ice as forecast models are horrible at scouring out surface cold air too quickly!)
There are no guarantees in a forecast this far out, so for those of you with travel plans (myself included) just please pay close attention to our local media who will likely be forecasting a political “Rain-Snow-Mix” until they warn you of an “impending Snow and crippling ice storm” on Thursday night (this is me being sarcastic) — we will see. Enjoy your weekend!