There currently remains some slight differences in the short and medium range forecast models regarding timing of when the precipitation begins on Sunday night and how cold temperatures will be during Monday morning’s rush hour across the northwest half of the forecast area.
The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) model (image above, courtesy WxBell) shows that most members predict a cold rain falling on Sunday night.
My concern is that models are notoriously bad at scouring cold air out too quickly. Bottom Line: We will need to watch how quickly temperatures cool off on Sunday night before we throw the towel in on any potential wintry mix Sunday night across parts of the Washington Area.
18z (latest) NAM loop (7pm Sunday through 4pm Monday):
Good news: We have some more beneficial rain showers and a period of some moderate rain to relieve the drought conditions across our area once again.