Ensemble Models Hint at Potential Snow Event

The latest Ensemble European Forecast Models are a snow lovers dream across much of the interior Northeast including Northern New England.  As I have always reminded my readers, “snow breeds more snow” and with a hefty snow pack over northern New England, we should begin to see the storm track start to shift a bit further south as we head into the middle portion of December.

Here is the latest European Control run showing over a half a foot of snow on the ground in our western and northwestern suburbs and snow pack on the ground along the interstate 95 corridor of Maryland and Virginia.

eps_snow_c_ma_61.png

The European Ensemble Mean (averaging the over 50 individual control runs) shows this:

eps_snow_m_ma_61.png

And for your entertainment purposes, here are the individual Ensemble members (notice how right now there is about a 50/50 chance that the DC Area will be covered in hefty snow pack by December 15th):

Ensembles (1 through 26): 

eps_snow_25_washdc_61.png

Ensembles 27 through 51: 

eps_snow_50_washdc_61.png

I will be watching the future Ensemble forecast runs looking for any possible additional consistency.  The cold air will certainly be around for snow… storm track and phasing will be key.

Bottom Line: Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are heading our way late next week.  I am watching for the potential of a snow event during the December 13th – 16th time frame.  Stay Tuned.

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