Friday Update on Hurricane Matthew

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Hurricane Matthew’s eye wall has thus far remained offshore and for my friends and family and residents of the state it is a huge sigh of relief for them.

Despite this, locations along the Space Coast (Cape Canaveral) according to doppler radar velocity estimates recording wind gusts of over 100 mph (image below). 

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If that western eye wall (bright magenta colors) had come onshore, there would have been widespread sustained winds of 125 mph with gusts to 130.  This is good news all around as the “worst case scenario” which was advertised by half of the operational models didn’t come to fruition.

Here’s a look at the future storm track according to the latest North American Model (NAM):

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Hyped up Storm? 

Does the media love hype? Absolutely. I’m not disagreeing.  Was this some kind of conspiracy? I think that would be a ridiculous argument.  As was mentioned, any shift in track just offshore or onshore would have huge implications on sustained wind speeds across the southeastern coastline of the United States.  

The reason folks were evacuated is because local officials wanted to ensure the safety of their citizens.  So if there are angry people who evacuated, at least they are angry and alive and not dead.  A category 2, 3 or 4 hurricane is nothing to play around with.  Models are not perfect… the lives of the people impacted by these storms are what is important. And in fairness to the forecast models, the ensembles performed very well at either a “scraping of the coast with a direct landfall” or remaining just offshore.

Latest European Wind Gusts Probability Forecast:

Friday 1pm – 

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Friday 7pm – 

ecmwf_uv10g_florida_Friday_7PM.png

Saturday 1am – 

ecmwf_uv10g_florida_Saturday_1AM.png

Saturday 7am –

ecmwf_uv10g_charleston_Saturday_7AM.png

Saturday 1pm – 

ecmwf_uv10g_charleston_Saturday_1PM.png

Saturday 7pm –

ecmwf_uv10g_charleston_Saturday_7PM.png

Finally I’ll end this with the latest rainfall forecast which continues to show an impressive 6 to 15″ of rain:

NAM_4km_rainfall_totals.gif

 

One thought on “Friday Update on Hurricane Matthew

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