Last nights operational and ensembles have shifted the track of dangerous Hurricane Matthew further west. The current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (image below courtesy NOAA) has also shifted closer to the southeastern coastline of the United States with much larger impacts including an increasing threat of a possible direct landfall somewhere in the western periphery of the “cone of uncertainty”. Hurricane Watches may be issued later this morning for portions of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
Here are the latest Operational Models (images courtesy TropicalTidbits, Weatherbell):
Global Forecast System (GFS):
GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System):
European (waiting the a more recent update late this morning):
As of this morning the Mid-Atlantic coastline (Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey) needs to pay close attention to further updates from the National Hurricane Center as any future shift further west would have major impacts (in addition to the already expected high surf and rip currents) on Saturday.
The current models do suggest some rainfall and gusty winds possible as far west as the interstate 95 corridor in the DC Region this weekend. Again any change in track to the west or east will significantly alter conditions across our area this weekend (sunshine to tropical storm/hurricane conditions).
Right now there is not enough consensus within the ensemble runs to pin point exactly how close to the coast Matthew will track as it approaches our region. Please stay tuned to the latest official forecast updates from the National Hurricane Center.