The probability of Matthew making landfall along the coast of Florida has unfortunately increased as the models have continued to shift west in track. The storm is then forecast to slam the GA and Carolina coastline with hurricane force winds, storm surge and torrential rainfall.
Let’s first look at the 12z European Operational Run:
The European Ensembles are in consistent agreement with the operational run that Matthew may now likely make landfall along the Florida coastline before impacting GA and the Carolinas.
From here the forecast really becomes uncertain as the latest ensemble members pull Matthew out to sea from there and some members even loop it back to the southwest and then south (it may be left behind by the trough coming through the northeast).
The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center currently takes a blend of the models and continues it on to the northeast with possible impacts to the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline.
GFDL showing surface winds in knots (side bar on the right) and track
Closer look at the same model above:
Finally the latest GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System): Again uncertainty after Matthew reaches the GA and Carolina coastline:
Please do not focus on the operational runs or ensembles and pay close attention to the official track from the National Hurricane Center as Matthew is a very “fluid” situation for our weekend weather here in the Mid-Atlantic!