Monday Morning Model Update on #Hurricane Matthew

Here are the latest Operational runs (HWRF, GFDL, two images below, courtesy TropicalTidbits.com) regarding Matthew’s current forecast track as well as the latest  Ensemble Forecast Models (Euro, GEFS, and Canadian) showing a wider spread of outcomes in Matthew’s future track.  There continues to be great uncertainty among the ensembles as to how close to the United States southeast coastline that Matthew tracks.  

Latest Operational runs (caution these are not ensembles so take what you see with a grain of salt):

HWRF_Matthew_00z_100316.gifGFDL_Matthew_00z_100316.gif

Here are the latest Ensemble runs from the European model, GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) and GEPS (Canadian).

  • Remember, operational model runs (the two images above) are cranking out one  mathematical solution (outcome) based on one set of input data (numbers) that are based on current conditions when the model is ran.

 

  • Ensembles on the other hand crank out multiple solutions by tweaking the initial input data some 50 times over which gives multiple outputs in the same run and shows whether there is a great deal of certainty (a tightly clustered track) or uncertainty (a wider variety of tracks):

 

European Ensemble:

ecmwf_ensembles_12z_100216.png

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS):

GEFS_Matthew_00z_100316.gif

Canadian Ensemble:

Canadian_Ensemble_GEPS_00z_100316.gif

Notice how uncertainty grows rapidly once Matthew reaches the Bahamas as the future positions (outcomes) of Matthews center of circulation exact track (little red numbers) are spread out pretty far as Matthew moves into the higher latitudes off of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast.

Matthew will likely begin to feel the effects of the trough of low pressure (dip in the jet stream) that will be approaching the midwest as we head into the weekend.  

Initially its possible that Matthew starts to move north-north-west towards the Carolinas before another turn to the north and then north-north-east.

  • If the trough were to slow down folks in the Outer Banks could be hit and residents along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines would need to worry.

 

  • If the trough speeds up then Matthew would likely remain far enough off the coast to not see a direct landfall.  

Still there are many outcomes in between so as I have said please continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from the talented folks at the National Hurricane Center.

 

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