The image below (courtesy TropicalTidbits.com) is showing the latest American suite of models (Global Ensemble Forecast System) which as you can see currently continue to track Matthew the closest to the southeast United States coastline.
However the majority of the European Ensembles (image below) currently keeps Hurricane Mathtew from making landfall in the United States with just high surf and rip currents being the main impact.
The Canadian Ensembles (GEPS) currently tracks Matthew a little further west than the European Ensembles but further east in track than the GEFS (the American Global Ensemble Forecast System).
While I am not trying to sound like I am playing “favorites” when it comes to models, the European model definitely has more money invested in it and therefore for now, we will continue to have to watch for consistency between the various ensembles (GFS, Euro and Canadian).
If the Euro & Canadian Ensembles start to shift west over time, then my anxiety would increase for significant impacts to the southeast coastline. I don’t want to speculate at this time and anyone who tells you they know exactly where this storm is going to track or whether the models have an “excellent” handle on the trough of low pressure that will ultimately be responsible for Matthew’s exact track during the upcoming Holiday weekend is lying to you.
Bottom Line: Be prepared for any possible impacts from Matthew and pay close attention to the official Hurricane Track from the talented folks at the National Hurricane Center.