Latest GFDL model showing the current forecast track of what is currently Powerful #Hurricane Matthew with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph!
The image below shows the latest official track from the National Hurricane Center (image below courtesy NOAA) which turns Powerful Hurricane Matthew northward during the day on Sunday with eventual impacts across Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas.
Where does Matthew go from here? Let’s take a look at the Ensembles:
The next image (courtesy TropicalTidbits.com) is from the American Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) which shows the current forecast track among 50 individual ensemble runs.
When the numbers are tightly clustered confidence is high on the position of a cyclone’s track. As the numbers begin to spread out as they do over time, uncertainty increases on where the system will ultimately track.
While the 50 ensemble members (little red numbers) are fairly well tightly clustered around the Bahamas, uncertainty then begins to grow on how close to the coast Hurricane Matthew will track as a minority of members actually track the cyclone very close to the coastline. The majority of the ensemble members currently keep the center of Matthew off of Cape Hatteras, NC and then take him northeastward to a position off of the New England coastline.
The current European (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is currently also in pretty good agreement with the GEFS model. However we can’t completely let our guard down because again the timing of the trough that will dip into the central United States and eventually swing across the east coast is still uncertain.
Bottom Line: The models currently track Matthew toward the Bahamas and then uncertainty begins to increase on just how close to the coast this powerful cyclone tracks. Please pay close attention to the official forecast track updates from the National Hurricane Center.