Update on Tropical Storm Matthew

The latest forecast models track what is now Tropical Storm Matthew into the Caribbean Sea and the begin to turn him toward the north following an eerily similar path of what Hurricane Hazel did back in 1954.

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Hurricane Hazel Track (1954):

Hazel_1954_track.png

Latest Forecast Models:

GFDL_Matthew.gifHWRF_Matthew.gif

Global Ensemble Forecast System shows Matthew re-emerging into the Atlantic Ocean impacting the Bahamas and then from there moving somewhere off of the southeastern coast of the United States:

GEFS_Matthew.gif

We will have to watch this closely to see if a trough (dip in the jet stream) will carry Matthew out to sea or if the trough slows down pulling Matthew into the eastern seaboard before curving him back out to sea.

The current time frame for worry in our region would be just before the Columbus Day Weekend kicks off. Stay Tuned to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center.  You can do this by clicking on the “Forecast” tab at the top of my page, selecting “Tropics (NHC)” and then clicking on “Tropical Activity”. 

 

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