The current GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) model tracks Hurricane Matthew much further offshore and pulls the cyclone off to the north at a faster rate of forward speed than the European Forecast Model.
The European Forecast Model Ensemble (image below) shows a lot more uncertainty as to whether the storm hits Florida, the Mid-Atlantic or heads into the Gulf of Mexico.
The faster Matthew moves the more likely it will get pulled out to sea by a trough (dip in the jet stream) during the October 7th – 12th time period.
If Matthew does take it sweet time moving northward, there could be reason for worry that a ridge of high pressure building across New England could track the storm inland or very close to the east coast of the United States. Stay Tuned.