Uncertainty Swirls Around Hurricane Matthew’s Eventual Track

The current GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) model tracks Hurricane Matthew much further offshore and pulls the cyclone off to the north at a faster rate of forward speed than the European Forecast Model.



The European Forecast Model Ensemble (image below) shows a lot more uncertainty as to whether the storm hits Florida, the Mid-Atlantic or heads into the Gulf of Mexico.


The faster Matthew moves the more likely it will get pulled out to sea by a trough (dip in the jet stream) during the October 7th – 12th time period.

If Matthew does take it sweet time moving northward, there could be reason for worry that a ridge of high pressure building across New England could track the storm inland or very close to the east coast of the United States.  Stay Tuned.

Update on Tropical Storm Matthew

The latest forecast models track what is now Tropical Storm Matthew into the Caribbean Sea and the begin to turn him toward the north following an eerily similar path of what Hurricane Hazel did back in 1954.


Hurricane Hazel Track (1954):


Latest Forecast Models:


Global Ensemble Forecast System shows Matthew re-emerging into the Atlantic Ocean impacting the Bahamas and then from there moving somewhere off of the southeastern coast of the United States:


We will have to watch this closely to see if a trough (dip in the jet stream) will carry Matthew out to sea or if the trough slows down pulling Matthew into the eastern seaboard before curving him back out to sea.

The current time frame for worry in our region would be just before the Columbus Day Weekend kicks off. Stay Tuned to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center.  You can do this by clicking on the “Forecast” tab at the top of my page, selecting “Tropics (NHC)” and then clicking on “Tropical Activity”. 


Timing Today’s Heavy Rainfall


The image above (courtesy TropicalTidbits.com) shows numerous showers with embedded periods of heavier rainfall continuing to stream in off of the Atlantic through 7pm this evening.

The following image shows how much additional rainfall is expected through 7pm:


Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on Saturday (hopefully less numerous than today and Friday):